Proponents of renewable power as a solution to energy poverty often care about renewable power and not energy poverty.
An oil price spike is possible in 2018, but the primary cause would be a significant supply disruption, especially later in the year.
A tongue in cheek view of what is likely to happen in the coming year in energy.
Most forecasts are for tighter oil markets next year, but a number of developments could see a new price collapse.
Headlines that contradict each other can often be found when studying energy, but careful thinking allows the reader to judge when bias is at fault or merely imprecise wording.
Contracts for renewable power are often over-priced and include unrealistic price inflation terms. This creates a risk for the producer as they receive price levels increasingly divorced from the market.
Aside from meeting standards of fairness, there is a strong argument to be made from an economic point of view for diversity in corporate leadership.
Reports about Chinese interest in an Alaskan LNG project should recognize that high costs are a big, but not insurmountable, problem.
Political events in the Middle East might not translate into any impact on oil supplies, but will certainly move prices upward.
The futures market is moving close to backwardation, which is a better indicator of the market balance than the (delayed and partial) inventory data.
Predictions that electric vehicles will so reduce oil demand in the next decade as to cause oil prices to crash appear, at best, exaggerated.
Oil man Harold Hamm suggests the EIA’s optimistic projection of U.S. oil supply for next year has increased the discount on Brent, but the data suggests otherwise.
Arguments that U.S. gas resources are overstated are not only incorrect, but in reality, they are conservative.
Traders eagerly await the latest IEA Oil Market Report, but data lags suggest that the market rebalancing could occur faster than expected from the supply/demand numbers.
Unconventional policies to help fight climate change.
The hoarding of gasoline by consumers affected by Hurricane Harvey is a reminder that hoarding is rational and can occur at the global level under the right circumstances.
A new book about the failure of A Better Place provides some interesting lessons for energy technology and entrepreneurs.
Arguments that electric vehicles will see soaring market share are based on bad analogies.
Natural gas is not a ‘bridging fuel’ but an important source of energy long-term that could greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Now a flood of U.S. LNG exports is poised to break the informal global exporter cartel that has kept prices high and de…
Shell’s suggestion that oil prices could be low forever meets surprise only from those ignorant of the history of oil, resource economics, and oil price forecasting.
The unrest in Venezuela could lead to a disruption of oil production, but it should have minimal affect on oil prices. Possible U.S. sanctions against imports of Venezuealan crude will be financial insult to the injury which is the government’s policies.
Past experience with computer models of the oil market suggest weaknesses in the use of Artificial Intelligence programs for trading in oil. In all likelihood, they are Maelzaelian machines.
Former VP Al Gore ascribes public skepticism towards scientists to those who lost from globalization, but it’s more due to some politicians embracing bad science like Paul Ehrlich’s Neo-Malthusianism.
Most public debates are poorly structure for actually resolving disputes. I suggest ways that a government-sponsored climate debate might actually be of value.
The argument that electric vehicles are poised for a market breakout needs to be treated with a good deal of caution.
NY Attorney General’s charge that Exxon’s carbon price assumptions are inconsistent and misleading displays his ignorance of business practices, not devotion to the law.
Although there are many claims that the renewable energy revolution is unstoppable, it appears that the removal of heavy subsidies does just that.
Reports of oil industry investment in renewable energy and electricity should be taken with a large dose of salt, as this has happened before only to be abandoned.
Two prominent economists, Robert Solow and Paul Krugman, provide a lesson in why you shouldn’t go beyond your field of expertise, as they misinterpret past oil market moves.
The current craze for predicting ‘peak oil demand’ brings to mind past energy revolutions that failed. The reasons for their appeal (to some) are illuminating.
Those arguing for U.S. leadership on climate change ignore the fact that most energy policies have been misguided and even harmful.
The shareholder vote requiring Exxon to address the possible impact of climate change on its business accomplishes little and ignores the long history of outsiders advising oil companies on their business. Peak oil supply was merely one instance, but …
Those promoting the idea of a near-term peak in oil demand do not seem to be aware of many of the historical antecedents.
The efforts to control coal smoke in 19th century Britain resembles current environmental debates in many ways, mostly in our inability to have rational consideration of the problem and solutions.
All sides should support the intensive collection of data about the environment and our energy industry, as debates are only settled by information, not political pressure.
New supply is likely to come from a number of areas, from Mexico to the Barents Sea, and the picture is brighter than it has been for years.
Oil supply tends to be lumpy, with only a few countries showing higher production at any given time. Additionally, the degree to which production declines offset increases plays a major role in determining the net increase in a period.
To many of those marching for “Science” today are likely to be unscientific in their behavior, embracing particular theories and eschewing debate.
A more aggressive U.S. policy in the Middle East could raise fears of a wider conflict, which would elevate oil prices.
Tesla’s recent news is positive, but the real challenges are still ahead. Delivering batteries and cars in volume and with minimal quality problems to keep the company afloat is not a sure thing.
The growing anti-pipeline opposition movement is based on false beliefs and ignorance, not rational decision-making.
Advocates complain about electric vehicle myths promoted by skeptics, but don’t really address them.
Fears that the reduction in upstream investment since the oil price decline will cause market tightness and a new price spike in 3-5 years are overblown and ignore the role of falling costs.
World natural gas prices have dropped sharply, even as massive new LNG plants come on-line. However, recent price levels are likely to persist, putting high-cost exporters under severe pressure.
Although it is claimed that evidence against fracking is accumulating, this represents primarily scientific ignorance on the part of opponents.
Expectations that oil prices will remain high–or even increase–require OPEC compliance more than any other factor.
Solar advocates point to the number of jobs created by the industry, but a little logic suggests that this is either misdirection or poor analysis. No other industry brags about its labor inefficiency.
In judging forecasts, it is more valuable to know why they were good or bad than to simply note the result.
The belief that the technology underlying electric vehicles is advancing so fast that world oil demand will peak within five to ten years appears yet another example of irrational exuberance.
People who appear to be expert often aren’t, and on issues like peak oil it pays to be skeptical. Experience goes a long way towards spotting errors.
The belief that subsidizing technologies like Battery Electric Vehicles will reduce costs as sales accumulate, the strategy followed by Elon Musk, appears inferior to spending on research to lower costs, as Bill Gates and the Breakthrough Energy Coalit…
India’s goal of 175 GW of renewable energy in five years is unlikely to be an optimal approach for many reasons.
Although there are real economic issues that could lead to world oil demand peaking, it does not appear imminent. Most of the alarmist predictions have no more credibility than peak oil supply warnings a decade ago.
A battle is forming over the incoming administration’s plans to change regulations, but the current patchwork system is in need of reform, having become unwieldy and unnecessarily burdensome.
Claims that solar power can prosper without government support contradict reality, and advocates’ dishonesty about this could haunt them later.
Questions about whether EPA nominee is a climate change denialist reflects a simplistic, and incorrect, view of the issue of global warming.