Gulf Of Mexico Production Recovers After Recent Slump

This briefly covers the production side as the hurricane outages are dominating the trends at the moment, but there’s a section at the end on discoveries and reserves that may give some pointers to future expectations. The tables below show the production numbers for September, and their relation with previous months from BOEM and EIA, which are pretty close, but for some reason never the same and have actually diverged quite significantly at the moment. Both sets of data get revised, possibly up to a year later, usually those from EIA more…

The Biggest Oil Producers Flying Under The Radar

This post covers recent C&C production and future prospects, with a bit on gas, for several mid-size non-OPEC producers. A few have been omitted (e.g. Canada, Kazakhstan, Egypt, UK) for no particular reasons other than lack of time or anything much to say, but may be covered in the future. Many of the countries here have held a bumpy plateau over the last twelve to eighteen months. For most this has come after a period of decline, and some are showing signs that decline might be starting again. Brazil has been on a plateau after a period of…

Is Texas Poised For A Sharp Rise In Output?

Dean Fantazzini has provided his latest estimates of Texas oil and natural gas output. His analysis is based on RRC data only. Each RRC data set from Jan 2014 to Sept 2017 for crude and from April 2014 to Sept 2017 for condensate and natural gas are used in the “all data” estimate, the most recent 49 months of data are collected for each individual data set. After March 2016 there was a shift in the data for crude and condensate so for the C+C estimate, I include an estimate which uses all data from April 2016 to the most recent data…

Falling Iraqi Oil Output Drags OPEC Production Down

All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through October 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day. (Click to enlarge)I have now included Equatorial Guinea although I only have data from January 2015 from OPEC’s secondary sources. The January 2015 E. Guinea data was extended back to January 2005. I know this is inaccurate but production from E. Guinea is so small it will make little difference. (Click to enlarge)OPEC crude oil production dropped by 151,000 barrels per day in October. (Click…

North Sea Oil In Urgent Need Of A Major Discovery

Short-term trends for UK oil and gas production and, to a lesser extent, Norway can be rendered a bit meaningless by seasonal impacts from summer maintenance turn-arounds and cyclic gas demand. Overall, though, both are at or approaching the tail end of the production curve, but with slight upticks in the nearer term. Barring several large and unlikely new discoveries over the coming years the industry will continue winding down in both countries, with the UK ahead of Norway, and exploration and development leading operations and finally decommissioning.…

Can U.S. Renewables Catch Up With Nuclear?

(Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge)The EIA released the latest edition of their Electric Power Monthly on October 24th, with data for August 2017. The table above shows the percentage contribution to two decimal places for the last two months and the year to date. According to the Electricity Monthly Update at the EIA web site, “Net generation in the U.S. decreased by 7.2 percent compared to the previous August, mainly due to the cooler temperatures experienced in August 2017 compared to the previous year.” Nuclear generated slightly…

Has Gulf Of Mexico Oil Production Plateaued?

GoM C&C production for July by BOEM was 1746 kbpd and by EIA 1761, compared with, respectively, 1631 and 1634 kbpd (corrected) in June. The EIA number is a new peak, the BOEM one is still 24 kbpd short of their March numbers. The growth was from Thunder Horse (partially), Constitution and Baldpate/Salsa (which is mostly gas) coming back on-line, plus continued ramp-up in Stones and Marmalard. (Click to enlarge)C&C Production Details For new fields added since late 2014, data for Tubular Bell’s, which has not been available since late…

Brazil Sees Oil Exports Soar

Colombia Colombia production is holding a plateau over the past year after a large decline in the last part of 2015 and first half of 2016. August value was 858 kbpd (down 0.04 percent y-o-y). (Click to enlarge) Colombia oil reserves at the end of 2016 were 1.66 Gb (down 16.8 percent from 2 Gb in 2015 which followed a drop from 2.31 Gb in 2014). At the average 2016 production rate of 885 kbpd this gave an R/P of 5.1 years, the lowest for any significant producing country. Most of their production is heavy oil. Ecoptrol, which accounts for more…

How OPEC Continues To Cheat On Its Own Deal

All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.All data is through September 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day. (Click to enlarge) The above chart does not include the 14th member of OPEC that was recently added, Equatorial Guinea. I do not have historical data for Equatorial Guinea so I may not add them at all. OPEC production has held steady for the past four months. Equatorial Guinea production is tiny, 141,000 bpd so their monthly change in production can be ignored without much effect. OPEC 14 production was up…

Hurricane Season Weighs On Gulf Of Mexico Production

Production Production for June by BOEM was 1631 kbpd and by EIA 1636, compared with 1673 and 1659 kbpd, respectively, in May. The decline was mostly from Thunder Horse going offline and Constitution staying offline. Hurricane Cindy didn’t seem to have much of an impact, things will be different for the impact of Harvey on August figures. Even with the two offline facilities coming back July numbers will struggle to beat those for March, and after that the depletion declines and hurricane disruptions take over. Note that the “others”…

Texas Oil Production Remains Strong…But For How Long?

Dean Fantazzini has provided his latest estimates for Texas Oil and Natural Gas output. (Click to enlarge)Data below is for Texas C+C estimates in kb/d. (Click to enlarge)Data below is for Texas Natural Gas in billions of cubic feet per day (BCF/d).  All data uses all vintage data for the correction factors and 3 months uses only the average of the correction factors for the most recent 3 months.The chart below shows how the correction factors have changed over time, the average of these correction factors for T to T-11 are found for all vintage…

Could UK Oil Production Peak Again In 2019?

Production History And Reserves UK oil production peaked in 1999. The peak was probably pushed out a couple of years because of the major production interruptions following the Piper Alpha disaster. Production declined quickly until around 2011, then the high oil price allowed more brownfield and then greenfield developments that created a third local peak in 2016. Production is declining again this year but there are several large projects due that will create another peak in 2018 or 2019 (nearly equal to the 2016 one). After that terminal decline…

OPEC Deal In Jeopardy As Exempted Nations Boost Output

All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through July 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day. (Click to enlarge)The above chart does not include the 14th member of OPEC that was just added, Equatorial Guinea. I do not have historical data for Equatorial Guinea so I may not add them at all. It doesn’t really matter since they are only a very minor producer. Also, they are in steep decline, dropping at about 10 percent per year. The huge June OPEC production increased was due to a revision,…

Could Brazil Derail The OPEC Deal?

Brazil is a major oil producing country, but in 2016 was still a net importer, though imports dropped significantly and they have been a slight exporter overall so far this year. It is one of the few countries that have consistently grown production over recent years, and possibly the only non-OPEC country that will show overall growth of conventional crude in the ten years to (say) 2022. Production Brazil ANP or anp (Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis) publishes Excel files for monthly production…

Russian Oil Output Falls While OPEC Boosts Exports

All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through June 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day. (Click to enlarge)  The above chart does not include the 14th member of OPEC that was just added, Equatorial Guinea. I do not have historical data for Equatorial Guinea so I may not add them at all. It doesn’t really matter since they are only a very minor producer. Also, they are in steep decline, dropping at about 10% per year.   (Click to enlarge)  March OPEC production…

Texas Natural Gas Production Soars In June

(Click to enlarge)Dean Fantazzini has provided me with updates to Texas Oil and Natural Gas estimates, the data shifted about a year ago so I use the most recent 13 months of Texas RRC data along with the “all vintage” data estimate which uses all data from Jan 2014 to April 2017 for oil and April 2014 to April 2017 for condensate. The most recent EIA estimate is shown for comparison. In April 2017, the EIA estimate is 3345 kb/d, the 13-month corrected estimate is 3443 kb/d, and the all vintage estimate is 3572 kb/d. (Click to enlarge)Eagle…

Mexico’s Oil Reserves Fall In Spite Of Oil Major Interest

In dollar terms, since mid-2015 Mexico has been a net importer of hydrocarbons (oil, natural gas, petroleum products and petrochemicals combined). To date it has been a relatively small and fairly constant amount, but with their oil production declining, and oil prices apparently continuing to fall while natural gas prices may be on the rise, the net cost could now start to increase. (Click to enlarge)2017 reserve numbers were issued in early June. These used to come from PEMEX, but now look like they come from the government through the National…

Renewable Energy Outproduces Nuclear In The U.S.

(Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) The EIA released the latest edition of their Electric Power Monthly  on May 25th, with data for March 2017. March data includes some milestones which are significant in that these circumstances have not existed for a very long time, if ever. • The contribution from solar reached just over 2 percent • The contribution from All Renewables exceeded that from Nuclear • The combined contribution from Wind and Solar exceeded 10 percent • The contribution from Non-Hydro Renewables exceeded…

EIA Ups Global Oil Production Forecast

The EIA recently updated its International Petroleum statistics. World Crude plus Condensate  (C+C) output was 80,577 kb/d in Feb 2017 an increase of 72 kb/d from the previous month, this was 1695 kb/d below the monthly peak output of 82,273 kb/d in November 2016. The most recent 12-month average (centered on August/September 2016) was 80,501 kb/d, 3 kb/d less than the previous most recent 12 month’s output. The 12-month centered average peak output was 80,574 kb/d in June/July 2016 as previously predicted by Ron Patterson and currently…

Texas Shows No Sign Of Slowing Production Growth

(Click to enlarge)The Chart above compares several different combinations of past (vintage) data to estimate output. The dotted line is based on the most recent 8 months (August 2016 to March 2017) of data saved from the RRC website, the blue solid line is based on the past 12 months of data, and the yellow line is based on the most recent 3 months of data. Each estimate uses the most recent 24 months of data from each month. A significant change in the size of the correction factors began in August 2016, which is the basis of the 8 month Corrected…

EIA vs IEA: When Will Oil Markets Balance?

(Click to enlarge)  The IEA Oil Market Report was published in mid-April, data from the report can be found here. (CLick to enlarge)The EIA’s STEO was published on May 9, 2017. (Click to enlarge)I assume in the chart above that OPEC crude output is 32 Mb/d in the last three quarters of 2017. (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge)The chart above assumes World commercial petroleum stocks are 5200 million barrels in Dec 2011, days of demand is total stock divided by the current month’s actual or forecasted demand (after Jan 2017).…

U.S. Shale – The New Swing Producer

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy has oil production data by country up to the end of 2015. This is what that looks like from 1988: (Click to enlarge)The United States increased production by 5.1 million barrels per day from 2010 to 2015. The increase in production from countries around the Persian Gulf over the same period was slightly less at 5.0 million barrels per day. The increase in total world production was 8.4 million barrels per day so the rest of the world declined by some 1.7 million barrels per day. This was despite Canadian…

U.S. Shale Could Peak Before 2025

In a previous post on U.S. LTO future output there were suggestions that a bottom up approach might be better than the top down approach and I agree. I will attempt the bottom up approach here. The chart below is a quick summary, based on three different oil price scenarios (high, medium, and low). The dashed line is just the average of the low and high oil price scenarios. Data is from Enno Peters’ website shaleprofile.com and the EIA. (Click on “Tight Oil Production Estimates” for tight oil output data.) (Click to enlarge) Clearly,…

Iran Continues To Ignore The OPEC Deal

All data below is in thousand barrels per day and is through February 2017. (Click to enlarge)OPEC crude oil production dropped to 31,958,000 bpd in January. That was a drop of 140,000 bpd. In January OPEC production dropped 930,000 bpd for a two-month total of 1,070,000 bpd. Officially OPEC agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day beginning in January. So, they are getting close. OPEC’s November production of 33,374,000 represented an all-time high for the Cartel. Algerian production held steady in February after a drop of…

The Bakken Gets A Second Wind

North Dakota has published January production data for the Bakken and for all North Dakota. (Click to enlarge)Bakken production was up 37,617 bpd to 932,817 bpd while all North Dakota’s production was up 37,972 to 980,294 bpd. (Click to enlarge)Bakken bpd per well was up 3 to 86 while the average bpd per well for all North Dakota wells was up 4 to 76. (Click to enlarge)The North Dakota stats have “Wells Producing” dropping by 189 in December and dropping another 35 in January for a total decline of 224 over the two months. The…

Is The Bakken A Bust?

North Dakota has released December production data for the Bakken and for all North Dakota. They were a little shocking.(Click to enlarge)Bakken production down 86,150 barrels per day 895,330 bpd. North Dakota production down 92,029 bpd to 942,455 bpd. It was noted that this the largest decline ever in North Dakota production. But it should not be overlooked that the October increase in production was also the largest ever increase in North Dakota production. From the Director’s Cut Oil Production November 31,034,520 barrels = 1,034,484 barrels/day…

OPEC 310,000 Barrels Per Day Above Production Cut Goal

The new January OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with crude only production numbers for January 2017. All charts are in thousand barrels per day. (Click to enlarge) OPEC crude oil production dropped to 32,139,000 bpd in January. November production was revised upward by 68,000 bpd while December production was revised downward by 56,000 bpd. So Peak OPEC production was in November 2016 instead of December as they had it last month. Officially OPEC agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day beginning in January. So OPEC missed…

Electric Vehicles Will Be A Major Oil Price Driver In The Future

Oil output (crude plus condensate or C+C) is likely to peak by 2020 (or may have peaked already in 2015 or 2016). Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Plugin hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) may allow about 40 percent of current oil consumption to be substituted with electricity, under the simplifying assumption that the use of oil based fuels in PHEVs is minimal due to high oil prices. It is assumed here that high oil prices are the likely result of the decline in oil output. I have modified my medium oil scenario with slightly higher extraction rates,…

Are Proven Oil Reserves Just A Political Tool?

Jean Laherrere has posted the following charts and comments on Bakken and World oil reserves. EIA proved reserves on Bakken (ND + Montana) plus cumulative production have changed at end: -2012 3754 Mb -2013 5701 Mb -2014 7203 Mb -2015 6671 Mb As shown in this graph in red squares, together with HL ultimates, USGS estimates and cumulative production. (Click to enlarge)This EIA CP+RR value (which is assumed to trend towards the oil ultimate) has increased sharply from 2012 to 2014 and has decreased in 2015 (this decrease may continue towards which…

Bakken Oil Production Soars After Long Decline

North Dakota just released their production numbers for the Bakken as well as for all North Dakota. (Click to enlarge)The numbers are shocking. The Bakken is up 70,798 bpd to 991,722 bpd and all North Dakota was up 71,447 bpd to 1,043,207 bpd. The EIA’s drilling productivity report really missed the ball on this one. (Click to enlarge)Bakken bpd per well was up 6 to 91 while North Dakota bpd per well was up 5 to 79. From the Director’s Cut Oil Production September 29,152,805 barrels = 971,760 barrels/day October 32,339,403 barrels =…

Where Will U.S. Oil Production Go In 2017?

The EIA has just released its Short-Term Energy Outlook. Some of their projections should be taken with a grain of salt because they usually change every month. Nevertheless… All U.S. production is Crude + Condensate. All other production numbers are total liquids. The data is in million barrels per day. (Click to enlarge) The EIA has U.S. production leveling out at just under 8.8 million bpd until Oct. 2017. (Click to enlarge) They have all large gains coming from the Gulf of Mexico. (Click to enlarge) The EIA sees no big gains coming from…

Texas Oil And Gas Output Continues To Fall

The railroad commission of Texas released September output data a few weeks ago and Dean Fantazzini made an estimate of the “corrected” data for crude plus condensate (C+C) and natural gas. Last month he found there had been a structural change in the data in March and provided a new estimate using only the most recent 3 months of data, I chose to use the most recent 6 months of data instead. (Click to enlarge) This month I will present the old estimate (labelled “all”) using all vintage data (dating back to April 2014)…

Bakken Oil Production Continues To Slide

Bakken oil production was down 10,119 barrels per day in September and all North Dakota production was down 10,353 bpd in September. Bakken production continues to decline, though I expect it to level off soon. Barrels per day per well continue a steady decline. Bakken bpd per well fell 2 to 85 while all North Dakota bpd per well fell 2 to 74. From the Director’s Cut Oil Production August: 30,442,347 barrels = 982,011 barrels/day September: 29,149,737 barrels = 971,658 barrels/day (preliminary) (all-time high was Dec 2014 at 1,227,483 barrels/day)…

How Realistic Are Current Climate Change Goals?

My previous post on an energy transition promised to consider the level of climate change that might be associated with such an Energy Transition. Rather than use Webhubbletelescope’s CSALT model in combination with a simplified Bern Carbon Model, I have chosen to use the MAGICC 6 climate emulator. (Click to enlarge)Three different values for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) were chosen, with the median of 19 CMIP3 global climate models at 2.88 C based on the analysis (see table B3 on page 1453 of the PDF) of the creators of the MAGICC…

Where’s Texas Oil Output Headed?

The Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) has recently reported new data for oil and natural gas output through August 2016. Dean Fantazzini has kindly shared his corrected data using the most recent data from the RRC. He uses a statistical procedure which adds up the changes in the RRC data from April 2014 to July 2016 to see how incomplete the data has been in the past and uses this to estimate the “missing barrels of oil and cubic feet of natural gas” that will be added to the current “incomplete data” over the following…