The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a 64 Bcf injection into domestic natural gas storage for the week ended Sept. 15, a tighter-than-normal figure that aligned with market expectations.
However, with supportive cooling demand fading into the shoulder season and heftier injections expected in the coming weeks, Nymex natural gas futures pulled back following the report.
Prior to the EIA print hitting trading desks at 10:30 a.m. ET, the October Nymex contract was hovering in the $2.725-2.750/MMBtu range, roughly in line with the previous day’s settle. Once the report landed, the market’s immediate response sent prices several cents lower, down to around $2.690.
As of around 11 a.m. ET, the front month was trading at $2.685, off 4.8 cents day/day.
Pre-report surveys pointed to an injection in the mid-60s Bcf, while NGI modeled a 63 Bcf injection.
Estimates submitted to Reuters spanned injections of 58 Bcf to 85 Bcf, with a median of 66 Bcf. A Bloomberg poll produced a narrower range of estimates and median 66 Bcf increase. A Wall Street Journal survey produced an average 67 Bcf injection based on 13 estimates ranging from 60 Bcf to 77 Bcf.
The 64 Bcf build for the week ending Sept. 15 compares with a 99 Bcf year-earlier injection and an 84 Bcf five-year average build.
The latest print marks the eleventh straight weekly injection to land on the lighter side of the five-year average. For the week ending Sept. 15, the year-on-five-year surplus shrank to plus-183 Bcf, down from plus-370 Bcf at the end of June, EIA data show.
“The strong power burn due to this summer’s heat resulted in storage injections that did trail last year and led to sizable salt withdrawals, largely alleviating concern of congestion in October and November,” Wood Mackenzie analyst Kyle Cooper wrote in a discussion on energy chat platform Enelyst Thursday.
Still, next week’s EIA report could break the streak of surplus-shrinking injections, with preliminary estimates shared by Enelyst participants Thursday hinting at a build in the 90s Bcf neighborhood. The five-year average injection for the week ending Sept. 22 is 84 Bcf, according to EIA.
Total Lower 48 working gas in underground storage stood at 3,269 Bcf as of Sept. 15. By region, EIA reported the largest week/week builds in the Midwest (27 Bcf) and East (18 Bcf).
The South Central region injected 12 Bcf for the period, including 1 Bcf into salt storage, EIA data show. The Mountain and Pacific regions, meanwhile, each injected 3 Bcf.
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