The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported an injection of 57 Bcf natural gas into storage for the week ended Sept. 8. The result came in at the high end of expectations but well below historic averages, leaving the market to mull its implications.
Ahead of the 10:30 ET government inventory print, the October Nymex natural gas futures contract was up 9.4 cents at $2.774/MMBtu. The prompt month tapered some to around $2.744 a few minutes after the EIA data was released. By 11 a.m. ET, it was up 4.9 cents from the prior day to $2.729.
NGI modeled a 52 Bcf increase for Thursday’s EIA print. Estimates submitted to Reuters ranged from injections of 39 Bcf to 57 Bcf, with a median of 48 Bcf. Bloomberg’s poll generated a range of injections of 40 Bcf to 58 Bcf and a median increase estimate of 51 Bcf. The Wall Street Journal’s survey produced an average injection estimate of 47 Bcf.
EIA reported an increase of 74 Bcf a year earlier and a five-year average addition of 76 Bcf.
Analyst Saheed Olayiwola of Refinitiv estimated that total demand for the Sept. 8 week was 1% higher than the prior 10-year average, reflecting robust electricity loads amid a late-summer wave across swaths of the central and eastern United States. Still, it was 5% lower than the total for the previous week, when scorching heat was even more pervasive, Olayiwola said on the online energy platform Enelyst.
Production, meanwhile, was essentially flat during the first full week of September – around the 102 Bcf/d level. “Production is still very strong,” Olayiwola said.
For the week ended Sept. 1, EIA posted a 33 Bcf increase in natural gas storage.
The latest injection lifted inventories to 3,205 Bcf, keeping stockpiles above the year-earlier level of 2,760 Bcf and the five-year average of 3,002 Bcf.
By region, the Midwest led the charge with a 27 Bcf injection. The East posted a 9 Bcf increase, followed by the Pacific’s 8 Bcf build and the Mountain region’s 7 Bcf increase.
The South Central injection of 6 Bcf reflected a 6 Bcf build in nonsalt facilities. Salts were flat.
Looking ahead to next week, analysts are generally expecting a bullish result relative to recent averages.
Early injection estimates for the week ending Sept. 15 submitted to Reuters ranged from 40 Bcf to 79 Bcf, with an average of 69 Bcf. That compares with an increase of 99 Bcf a year earlier and a five-year average of 84 Bcf.
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